A GLIMMER OF LIGHT IN A VERY DARK SKY

The war in Ukraine may augur a rekindling of democracy

I am not a determinist, but I concede that there is a weak dialectic that is manifest as it courses through history. Political currents that flow one way often change their course and flow in the opposite direction.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, liberal democracy appeared triumphant and optimists concluded that ideology was spent. Democracy would define the mode of governance for most if not all the world's nations. The passing of ideologies, communism and fascism the most salient, signaled that we had reached the end of history.

Unfortunately, this optimism proved short-lived. Democracy is not natural to human beings. It is not a default that remains when all other forms of government have failed. It requires ongoing effort to sustain, and in our time, ostensibly, people have grown weary and disenchanted with liberal democracy.

The consequence is the emergence of authoritarianism and with it populist support of autocrats who bring simplicity and order to complex and changing realities. Disenchantment with democracy and the embrace of authoritarian systems, factions, and leaders have been spreading like dark clouds across the globe, both in brute form and with the emergence of illiberal democracies, so-called. The latter maintains the structures of democracy, but power is concentrated in the executive with other branches of government hollowed out and the press subservient to state interests.

This ominous trend is reflected in the endless appearance of books and articles on the demise of democracy and the rise of fascism penned by political theorists, historians, journalists, and assorted pundits.

There is sadly, no shortage of subject matter. Examples abound on almost all continents: Erdogan's Turkey, Duterte's Philippines, Bolsonaro's Brazil. Israel has moved further to the right, with the peace camp greatly diminished and liberal organizations under pressure and increasingly marginalized.

Though it gets little exposure in the West, India moves closer to becoming a Hindu nationalist state. Espousing the doctrine of Hindutva, which promotes Hindu hegemony in a vast state with diverse minorities, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party, is firmly in control. Most telling are laws recently passed that officially discriminate against the Muslim minority, which constitutes over 200 million people. Prejudice is a reality in all societies. To officially encode it into law is a step beyond. According to reports published by Human Rights Watch,

“Authorities in India have adopted laws and policies that systematically discriminate against Muslims and stigmatize critics of the government... Prejudices embedded in the government of the ruling Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have infiltrated independent institutions, such as the police and the courts, empowering nationalist groups to threaten, harass, and attack religious minorities with impunity.”

“On December 12, 2019, the Modi administration achieved passage of the discriminatory Citizenship (Amendment) Act. Under the act, for the first time in India, religion is a basis for granting citizenship. The law specifically fast-tracks asylum claims of non-Muslim irregular immigrants from the neighboring Muslim-majority countries of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.” Freedom is disappearing in other ways in India as well, making it the place on the globe where liberty has most extensively receded.

As is well known, nationalist parties have long been emergent in Europe. The Alternatives for Germany, a subset of the far-right, is the largest opposition party in Germany. In France, the far-right parties of Marine Le Pen and now, Èric Zemmour, are serious contenders for the presidency in the next election. Polls indicate they command almost twenty percent of the electorate. Right-wing parties abound in Austria, Italy, Switzerland, Spain, and even in Denmark, contrary to their long-standing status as social democracies.

In great measure, voters are frustrated with the political establishment, but they also have concerns about globalization, immigration, threats to national identity inherent in diversity, and contention with the European Union.

Most salient in Europe has been the embrace of illiberal democracy, especially in Poland and Hungary. In the former, the conservative Law and Justice party rules. The government has made the judiciary subservient to the presidency, banned access to abortion, and has fought against the legal authority of the European Union. Supported by rural sectors of the population, Poland has become stridently hostile to immigrants.

Viktor Orbàn's Hungary is a poster child of illiberal democracy. Orbàn won the presidency in a landslide victory that allowed him to make fundamental changes to Hungary’s system of government, leading to the consolidation of his power. He enjoys broad control over the press, election procedures, and the judiciary in Hungary. Hungary is a Christian nation where Christianity enjoys a privileged status and has become a model applauded by American evangelical conservatives. The LGBT community faces discrimination, and Hungary has joined other Eastern European nations in rejecting immigrants and asylum seekers, especially from Muslim nations.

It is this authoritarian and nationalist trend, veering toward fascism, that characterizes Putin's Russia. China, the world's most populous nation and dictatorship under Xi Jinping, who has abolished term limits, has become increasingly authoritarian. With Chinese economic power spreading across the continents, its authoritarian model generates broad appeal.

Looking at the global scene, Freedom House last year issued a report noting the following:

“Authoritarian actors grew bolder during 2020 as major democracies turned inward, contributing to the 15th consecutive year of decline in global freedom, according to Freedom in the World in 2021, the annual country-by-country assessment of political rights and civil liberties released today by Freedom House.”

“The report found that the share of countries designated Not Free has reached its highest level since the deterioration of democracy began in 2006, and that countries with declines in political rights and civil liberties outnumbered those with gains by the largest margin recorded during the 15-year period. The report downgraded the freedom scores of 73 countries, representing 75 percent of the global population. Those affected include not just authoritarian states like China, Belarus, and Venezuela, but also troubled democracies like the United States and India.”

For the fifth consecutive year, the United States has been rated a “flawed democracy.” Needless to say, despite America's seemingly stable history as a constitutional democracy, we too, as we shockingly know well, are severely challenged by Donald Trump and his legions of followers normalizing what has been a lunatic fringe throughout our history.

Though I am not an alarmist, I contend that, as never before, the empirical warrants ensuring that the American experiment will endure are hard to find.

It is out of the condition of fear that I look with horror at the war in Ukraine. While it is patronizing to comment from a safe distance in any positive way as people suffer, and I strongly recoil at doing so, it is possible that in the world's response, including domestically, consequences salutary for democracy may emerge from the war.

For those attracted to the lure of authoritarianism, we witness in Putin's naked, unprovoked assault on a neighboring country what authoritarianism truly means: the wanton killing and agony of large numbers of innocent children, women, and men, their lives upended and destroyed.

We see in the dramatic courage of Ukrainians the defense of freedom and democracy in stark contrast to dictatorship and the depraved ambitions of an autocrat. People willing to lay down their lives for liberty are a most powerful and inspiring example of values we should not readily cede or despair of.

President Biden's rapid success in uniting the West, in a manner unprecedented after Donald Trump's perverse maneuvers to sunder the long-standing alliance of democratic states, is a dramatic display that democracy is by no means dead. This solidarity provides a dramatic contrast of values. With the consequent isolation of Russia, Western unity places in bold relief, as few things could, the contrast between democratic freedom on the one hand and autocracy on the other.

Domestically, Republicans strongly support Ukraine, a nation, following Trump, they recently condemned. This newfound heralding for Ukraine and opposition toward Russia may cause many Republicans at long last to split with Trump and his love affair with Putin. This move could be a strong step in not only undermining Trump's ambitions for a presidential run in 2024, but it could also be an advance in restoring sanity to the Republican Party. As such, it may augur well for American democracy.

The war in Ukraine may prove to be a major historical event. It could well be a critical milestone toward fostering a rebirth in liberal democracy and faith in democratic ideals. Out of the dark night of war, a new day may dawn. May it be so and may the conflict in that sorrowful land soon end.